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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.88vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.18+2.85vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.51+3.58vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+1.26vs Predicted
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5U. S. Military Academy1.22+4.94vs Predicted
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6Fordham University3.25-1.18vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.74+1.60vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.52-3.82vs Predicted
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9Yale University3.72-5.32vs Predicted
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10University of Buffalo0.87+0.86vs Predicted
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11Bates College1.32-1.28vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.57-2.73vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.06-0.14vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University0.12-1.59vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.31-1.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.88Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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4.85Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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6.58U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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5.26St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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4.82Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.6Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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4.18Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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3.68Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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10.86University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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9.72Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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9.27SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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12.86Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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12.41Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.08Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 18.2% | 17.3% | 14.6% | 13.4% | 12.7% | 8.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 10.9% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 12.4% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 11.3% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 8.8% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 12.7% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.4% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 11.9% | 16.1% | 15.7% | 10.6% | 8.4% | 1.7% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 10.3% | 11.5% | 11.8% | 14.0% | 13.2% | 12.5% | 11.1% | 7.5% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 4.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 13.9% | 13.2% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Willem Sandberg | 14.7% | 16.9% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 18.5% | 18.6% | 13.9% | 15.8% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 17.1% | 15.8% | 12.8% | 5.2% |
| Edward Moan | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 14.2% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 6.5% | 2.5% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 15.8% | 14.0% | 12.7% | 9.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 14.4% | 24.2% | 30.0% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 9.0% | 11.0% | 18.0% | 22.7% | 20.9% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 21.1% | 38.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.