Race 1B

maisa-women-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

69.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mary Kate Mezzetti 13.8% 12.4% 13.9% 13.0% 12.3% 11.2% 9.0% 7.1% 4.0% 2.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Brooke Lyon 10.1% 10.2% 11.1% 12.1% 11.4% 11.9% 10.3% 9.9% 6.5% 4.5% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Carolyn Smith 17.9% 18.0% 14.7% 14.4% 10.6% 9.9% 6.8% 4.0% 2.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Rachel Austin 9.9% 9.0% 10.5% 12.2% 11.3% 11.3% 11.2% 9.6% 8.1% 4.8% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Marissa Lihan 16.2% 15.8% 14.2% 13.1% 10.2% 10.5% 9.0% 5.0% 3.8% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinn Howes 6.8% 7.0% 7.4% 7.8% 9.5% 10.0% 12.1% 12.1% 10.9% 9.7% 5.4% 1.3% 0.0%
Joy MacDonald 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.6% 3.5% 4.6% 6.6% 8.6% 13.6% 22.1% 24.3% 7.9%
Madeleine Sims 3.5% 4.9% 4.5% 4.6% 6.4% 7.6% 8.9% 12.7% 16.8% 13.7% 10.9% 4.7% 0.8%
Hannah Schmidt 4.8% 3.3% 5.0% 5.7% 6.5% 7.3% 8.7% 14.6% 14.7% 14.1% 9.3% 5.0% 1.0%
Eliza Schuett 1.1% 1.7% 1.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 4.7% 5.7% 9.6% 15.2% 20.9% 22.6% 8.9%
Hannah McNomee 13.3% 14.5% 13.1% 10.2% 14.3% 11.5% 8.9% 6.8% 4.2% 2.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Laura Maranto 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 2.3% 4.7% 4.9% 8.3% 15.0% 19.7% 27.0% 9.7%
Briana Christophers 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.9% 2.3% 6.1% 14.0% 71.6%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.