Race 3B

maisa-women-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

46.2%
Within 2 Positions
1.9
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Mary Kate Mezzetti 14.4% 13.3% 12.2% 12.9% 12.3% 11.2% 8.5% 7.1% 5.2% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Marissa Lihan 15.4% 15.2% 14.2% 13.8% 12.4% 11.4% 6.6% 5.3% 3.1% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
Brooke Lyon 9.0% 10.6% 11.8% 12.5% 9.6% 12.2% 12.5% 8.6% 7.6% 4.0% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0%
Carolyn Smith 19.6% 16.2% 17.0% 11.4% 12.2% 9.4% 6.5% 4.4% 2.4% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Rachel Austin 11.6% 9.6% 10.0% 12.8% 10.4% 10.2% 12.2% 11.2% 5.7% 4.3% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1%
Quinn Howes 6.5% 7.6% 7.7% 8.0% 10.8% 9.9% 12.1% 11.9% 9.7% 10.4% 3.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Joy MacDonald 1.1% 2.4% 2.0% 1.5% 2.6% 2.9% 4.0% 7.2% 8.0% 13.6% 20.3% 24.8% 9.6%
Hannah McNomee 13.1% 13.1% 11.8% 12.1% 12.9% 11.9% 11.5% 5.5% 5.0% 2.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Hannah Schmidt 4.2% 4.2% 5.4% 5.6% 5.0% 8.9% 9.9% 13.1% 15.8% 11.8% 10.0% 5.0% 1.1%
Eliza Schuett 0.9% 2.0% 1.5% 3.2% 2.6% 2.2% 4.5% 6.1% 10.1% 14.8% 21.2% 21.5% 9.4%
Briana Christophers 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.6% 1.5% 2.2% 4.7% 7.1% 13.6% 68.6%
Madeleine Sims 2.9% 3.9% 4.8% 4.1% 6.4% 7.9% 7.4% 12.0% 15.9% 15.0% 13.0% 5.7% 1.0%
Laura Maranto 1.0% 1.5% 1.4% 1.7% 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% 6.1% 9.3% 14.7% 19.8% 26.6% 9.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.