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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.8%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.77vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.74+2.45vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.45+2.17vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University2.40+1.28vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.88-0.94vs Predicted
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6George Washington University2.67-1.44vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.97-0.84vs Predicted
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8Queen's University0.38+1.81vs Predicted
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9Princeton University-1.19+3.15vs Predicted
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10University of Virginia0.45-0.29vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.05-0.40vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.52-4.45vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.43-5.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.77St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.2%1st Place
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4.45Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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5.17Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.450.1%1st Place
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5.28Old Dominion University2.400.1%1st Place
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4.06U. S. Naval Academy2.880.2%1st Place
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4.56George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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6.16Cornell University1.970.1%1st Place
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9.81Queen's University0.380.0%1st Place
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12.15Princeton University-1.190.0%1st Place
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9.71University of Virginia0.450.0%1st Place
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10.6Columbia University-0.050.0%1st Place
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7.55Washington College1.520.0%1st Place
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7.73Fordham University1.430.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carolyn Smith | 19.5% | 16.8% | 15.7% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 13.4% | 13.2% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Brooke Lyon | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 12.3% | 10.0% | 7.6% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Rachel Austin | 10.2% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 11.8% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 6.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Marissa Lihan | 17.4% | 16.2% | 12.7% | 12.3% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 7.4% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Hannah McNomee | 13.0% | 14.1% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 13.0% | 10.5% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Quinn Howes | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 12.1% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 3.5% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Joy MacDonald | 1.0% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 6.1% | 10.5% | 15.9% | 20.8% | 22.5% | 8.3% |
| Briana Christophers | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 6.9% | 13.2% | 68.5% |
| Eliza Schuett | 1.1% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 21.0% | 21.2% | 7.8% |
| Madelaine Harrison | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 13.2% | 20.5% | 31.3% | 13.9% |
| Hannah Schmidt | 3.7% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 12.8% | 14.6% | 14.8% | 9.3% | 5.4% | 0.9% |
| Madeleine Sims | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 10.8% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 13.9% | 12.8% | 4.4% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.