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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy4.09+8.58vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.52+5.84vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.61vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.89+2.15vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+2.20vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42+2.03vs Predicted
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7Tufts University3.70+3.94vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College3.58+3.32vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University4.78-2.44vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.76-3.06vs Predicted
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11Washington College4.25-2.20vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University3.92-1.60vs Predicted
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13Princeton University2.30+2.29vs Predicted
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14University of Miami3.99-4.42vs Predicted
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15Brown University4.49-7.31vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College3.30-3.44vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont3.62-5.59vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.77-3.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.58U. S. Naval Academy4.090.1%1st Place
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7.84Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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6.61St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.15Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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7.2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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8.03Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
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10.94Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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11.32Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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6.56Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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6.94College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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8.8Washington College4.250.1%1st Place
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10.4Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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15.29Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.58University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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7.69Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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12.56Connecticut College3.300.0%1st Place
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11.41University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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14.09Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clark Hayes | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 4.1% | 2.1% |
| Alan Palmer | 5.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Michael Menninger | 9.0% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 6.6% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Sinks | 11.3% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Samuel Ingham | 7.7% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| John Darby | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.6% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 3.4% |
| Edward Glackin | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 5.4% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.8% | 9.5% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Juan Maegli | 9.7% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Blouin | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 17.3% | 43.6% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Katherine Andril | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 10.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 5.1% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.9% | 0.8% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 13.2% | 18.7% | 22.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.