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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.4
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.89+1.78vs Predicted
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2University of California at Los Angeles1.30+1.66vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles0.43+3.24vs Predicted
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4San Diego State University-0.19+4.37vs Predicted
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5University of California at Santa Cruz0.10+2.43vs Predicted
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6University of California at San Diego0.41+0.20vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-1.73vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.41+0.95vs Predicted
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9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.43+3.90vs Predicted
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10University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+3.03vs Predicted
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11University of California at San Diego-0.58-1.58vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.60+1.51vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.00-1.99vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.46-0.55vs Predicted
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15California State University Channel Islands-1.44-2.05vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-2.99vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.95-2.33vs Predicted
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18San Diego State University-1.27-5.56vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.93-4.30vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.78University of Southern California1.8929.4%1st Place
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3.66University of California at Los Angeles1.3020.6%1st Place
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6.24University of California at Los Angeles0.437.0%1st Place
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8.37San Diego State University-0.194.2%1st Place
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7.43University of California at Santa Cruz0.105.1%1st Place
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6.2University of California at San Diego0.417.8%1st Place
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5.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.839.4%1st Place
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8.95Arizona State University-0.412.8%1st Place
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12.9Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.430.8%1st Place
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13.03University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.1%1st Place
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9.42University of California at San Diego-0.582.6%1st Place
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13.51University of California at Los Angeles-1.600.8%1st Place
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11.01Arizona State University-1.001.6%1st Place
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13.45University of California at San Diego-1.461.2%1st Place
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12.95California State University Channel Islands-1.441.3%1st Place
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13.01Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.5%1st Place
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14.67Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.950.7%1st Place
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12.44San Diego State University-1.271.1%1st Place
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14.7University of California at San Diego-1.930.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Winsor | 29.4% | 24.4% | 17.7% | 11.9% | 8.2% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 20.6% | 18.1% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 11.3% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 7.0% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Morgan Burton | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack Zemke | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Vivin Vinil | 7.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 9.4% | 10.9% | 11.6% | 13.7% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Walden Hillegass | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.3% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 7.8% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| John Gallagher | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 10.5% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.6% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% |
| Declan Dury | 1.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.7% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.1% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 20.6% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 21.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.