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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Los Angeles1.30+2.72vs Predicted
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2University of Southern California1.89+0.80vs Predicted
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3University of California at San Diego0.41+3.44vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83+1.39vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles0.43+1.69vs Predicted
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6San Diego State University-0.19+2.79vs Predicted
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7University of California at Santa Cruz-0.59+3.90vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Cruz0.10-0.48vs Predicted
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9California State University Channel Islands-1.44+4.73vs Predicted
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10Arizona State University-0.41-0.50vs Predicted
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11University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+2.45vs Predicted
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12San Diego State University-1.27+1.01vs Predicted
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13University of California at San Diego-1.46+1.11vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego-1.93+1.47vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-1.00-3.30vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-2.32vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles-1.60-2.91vs Predicted
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18Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.95-2.60vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-0.58-8.96vs Predicted
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20Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.43-6.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.72University of California at Los Angeles1.3018.6%1st Place
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2.8University of Southern California1.8931.1%1st Place
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6.44University of California at San Diego0.417.8%1st Place
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5.39Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8310.7%1st Place
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6.69University of California at Los Angeles0.436.2%1st Place
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8.79San Diego State University-0.193.3%1st Place
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10.9University of California at Santa Cruz-0.591.8%1st Place
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7.52University of California at Santa Cruz0.105.3%1st Place
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13.73California State University Channel Islands-1.441.6%1st Place
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9.5Arizona State University-0.413.0%1st Place
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13.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.390.8%1st Place
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13.01San Diego State University-1.271.4%1st Place
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14.11University of California at San Diego-1.460.9%1st Place
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15.47University of California at San Diego-1.930.5%1st Place
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11.7Arizona State University-1.001.5%1st Place
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13.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.480.9%1st Place
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14.09University of California at Los Angeles-1.600.6%1st Place
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15.4Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.950.7%1st Place
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10.04University of California at San Diego-0.582.5%1st Place
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13.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.431.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marianna Shand | 18.6% | 19.3% | 17.1% | 12.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 31.1% | 23.6% | 16.0% | 12.1% | 8.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 7.8% | 7.2% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 9.7% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.7% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 12.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 7.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Morgan Burton | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Martin | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Jack Zemke | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Declan Dury | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 7.6% |
| Mitchell Powers | 3.0% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 6.3% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 10.1% | 10.7% | 13.4% | 19.9% |
| Antoine Kepczyk | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Colin Thompson | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 8.6% |
| John Gallagher | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 13.4% | 19.8% |
| Sean Lipps | 2.5% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Walden Hillegass | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 8.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.