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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1San Diego State University-0.27+7.56vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.10+4.97vs Predicted
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3University of Southern California1.89-0.18vs Predicted
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4University of California at San Diego0.41+2.04vs Predicted
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5University of California at Los Angeles1.30-1.44vs Predicted
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6University of California at Los Angeles0.43+0.28vs Predicted
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7Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-1.91vs Predicted
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8Arizona State University-0.41+0.86vs Predicted
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9San Diego State University-1.27+3.08vs Predicted
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10Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.43+2.62vs Predicted
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11California State University Channel Islands-1.44+1.69vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.95+2.33vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-0.30vs Predicted
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14University of California at Los Angeles-1.39-1.28vs Predicted
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15Arizona State University-2.09-0.22vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.60-2.67vs Predicted
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17University of California at San Diego-1.46-3.89vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.93-3.60vs Predicted
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19University of California at Irvine-0.36-9.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.56San Diego State University-0.274.2%1st Place
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6.97University of California at Santa Cruz0.105.3%1st Place
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2.82University of Southern California1.8930.2%1st Place
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6.04University of California at San Diego0.417.5%1st Place
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3.56University of California at Los Angeles1.3020.1%1st Place
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6.28University of California at Los Angeles0.436.3%1st Place
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5.09Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8310.9%1st Place
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8.86Arizona State University-0.412.7%1st Place
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12.08San Diego State University-1.271.3%1st Place
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12.62Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.431.5%1st Place
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12.69California State University Channel Islands-1.440.8%1st Place
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14.33Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.950.8%1st Place
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12.7Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.0%1st Place
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12.72University of California at Los Angeles-1.391.2%1st Place
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14.78Arizona State University-2.090.5%1st Place
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13.33University of California at Los Angeles-1.601.1%1st Place
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13.11University of California at San Diego-1.461.4%1st Place
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14.4University of California at San Diego-1.930.8%1st Place
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9.06University of California at Irvine-0.362.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Gignac | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Jack Zemke | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Davis Winsor | 30.2% | 22.3% | 17.6% | 13.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Vivin Vinil | 7.5% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Marianna Shand | 20.1% | 19.1% | 17.5% | 13.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 6.3% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.7% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 9.7% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Walden Hillegass | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% |
| Declan Dury | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 5.6% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 14.0% | 17.6% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.8% |
| Deven Douglas | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 13.4% | 21.6% |
| John Gallagher | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.9% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 11.2% | 14.3% | 16.9% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.