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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
19
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Southern California1.89+1.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Cruz0.10+5.15vs Predicted
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3University of California at Los Angeles1.30+0.64vs Predicted
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4Arizona State University-0.41+4.66vs Predicted
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5San Diego State University-0.27+3.68vs Predicted
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6Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.83-0.81vs Predicted
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7University of California at Irvine-0.36+1.92vs Predicted
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8University of California at San Diego0.41-1.88vs Predicted
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9University of California at Los Angeles0.43-2.71vs Predicted
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10California State University Channel Islands-1.44+2.62vs Predicted
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11Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.43+1.57vs Predicted
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12University of California at Los Angeles-1.39+0.62vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-2.09+1.85vs Predicted
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14San Diego State University-1.27-2.09vs Predicted
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15Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.95-0.52vs Predicted
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16University of California at Los Angeles-1.60-2.87vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.48-4.06vs Predicted
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18University of California at San Diego-1.93-3.65vs Predicted
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19University of California at San Diego-1.46-5.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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2.73University of Southern California1.8932.6%1st Place
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7.15University of California at Santa Cruz0.104.4%1st Place
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3.64University of California at Los Angeles1.3018.7%1st Place
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8.66Arizona State University-0.412.6%1st Place
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8.68San Diego State University-0.272.9%1st Place
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5.19Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.8310.1%1st Place
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8.92University of California at Irvine-0.362.9%1st Place
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6.12University of California at San Diego0.419.4%1st Place
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6.29University of California at Los Angeles0.436.3%1st Place
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12.62California State University Channel Islands-1.440.9%1st Place
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12.57Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.431.5%1st Place
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12.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.390.8%1st Place
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14.85Arizona State University-2.090.6%1st Place
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11.91San Diego State University-1.271.3%1st Place
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14.48Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.950.7%1st Place
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13.13University of California at Los Angeles-1.601.2%1st Place
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12.94Cal Poly University S.L.O.-1.481.8%1st Place
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14.35University of California at San Diego-1.930.6%1st Place
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13.13University of California at San Diego-1.460.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Winsor | 32.6% | 23.4% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 8.1% | 4.9% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jack Zemke | 4.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Marianna Shand | 18.7% | 19.7% | 17.9% | 13.1% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mitchell Powers | 2.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Casey Gignac | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Jack Kisling | 10.1% | 11.2% | 12.2% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nikita Swatek | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Vivin Vinil | 9.4% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 10.7% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Zack Taylor | 6.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Declan Dury | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% |
| Walden Hillegass | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.5% |
| Deven Douglas | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% |
| Katherine Pearson | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 13.0% | 23.0% |
| Tegan Smith | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.4% |
| Alex Rosenbaum | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 14.0% | 16.9% |
| John Gallagher | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.1% |
| Colin Thompson | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% |
| Joseph Weil | 0.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 15.7% |
| Jonathan Hickey | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.8% | 7.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.