← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1North Carolina State University1.99+4.09vs Predicted
-
2Jacksonville University-1.38+3.53vs Predicted
-
3North Carolina State University1.53+2.65vs Predicted
-
4University of Maryland0.75+3.92vs Predicted
-
5Georgia Institute of Technology-0.08+6.48vs Predicted
-
6University of North Texas1.77-1.36vs Predicted
-
7University of South Florida1.54-1.51vs Predicted
-
8University of Texas0.41+4.61vs Predicted
-
9Florida Institute of Technology0.73-1.22vs Predicted
-
10Clemson University-0.17+0.38vs Predicted
-
11Christopher Newport University0.83-2.54vs Predicted
-
12University of Virginia0.02-1.24vs Predicted
-
13University of South Carolina0.63-4.31vs Predicted
-
14University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.52-0.30vs Predicted
-
15Embry-Riddle University-0.52-2.35vs Predicted
-
16Duke University-0.57-3.45vs Predicted
-
17University of Georgia-1.97-0.06vs Predicted
-
18The Citadel-0.97-3.94vs Predicted
-
19University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.61-2.15vs Predicted
-
20William and Mary-2.95-1.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.09North Carolina State University1.9913.8%1st Place
-
5.53Jacksonville University-1.3810.7%1st Place
-
5.65North Carolina State University1.5311.9%1st Place
-
7.92University of Maryland0.756.0%1st Place
-
11.48Georgia Institute of Technology-0.082.2%1st Place
-
4.64University of North Texas1.7716.1%1st Place
-
5.49University of South Florida1.5411.0%1st Place
-
12.61University of Texas0.411.7%1st Place
-
7.78Florida Institute of Technology0.736.0%1st Place
-
10.38Clemson University-0.173.0%1st Place
-
8.46Christopher Newport University0.834.8%1st Place
-
10.76University of Virginia0.022.2%1st Place
-
8.69University of South Carolina0.634.0%1st Place
-
13.7University of Maryland/Baltimore County-1.521.5%1st Place
-
12.65Embry-Riddle University-0.521.6%1st Place
-
12.55Duke University-0.571.7%1st Place
-
16.94University of Georgia-1.970.2%1st Place
-
14.06The Citadel-0.971.1%1st Place
-
16.85University of North Carolina at Wilmington-1.610.4%1st Place
-
18.79William and Mary-2.950.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Harris | 13.8% | 12.5% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Emily Allen | 10.7% | 13.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Usher | 11.9% | 11.7% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Bisson | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cole Woerner | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Dutch Byerly | 16.1% | 13.1% | 13.9% | 11.4% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Eden Nykamp | 11.0% | 11.3% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Karina Bertelsmann | 1.7% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 4.2% | 1.2% |
| Brendan Smucker | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Samantha Bialek | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Daniel Hodges | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Connor Lothrop | 2.2% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Ian Street | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Zachary Vance | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 12.3% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 5.9% | 1.2% |
| Zechariah Frantz | 1.6% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 10.4% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 0.7% |
| Natalie Aramendia | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 2.8% | 0.6% |
| Katie Kellam | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 9.4% | 18.0% | 27.9% | 16.1% |
| Nicholas DeConto | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 13.2% | 8.9% | 2.8% |
| Nevin Williams | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 17.6% | 27.0% | 15.6% |
| Gabrielle Buffaloe | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 8.1% | 15.8% | 61.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.