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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.71+4.63vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.39+4.75vs Predicted
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3Harvard University4.17+4.65vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College3.62+5.56vs Predicted
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5University of Vermont3.37+5.60vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.56+3.98vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30-0.01vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45-1.66vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.38+1.68vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+0.53vs Predicted
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11University of Miami3.69-1.47vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University3.84-2.82vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-3.27vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston3.93-5.90vs Predicted
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15Washington College3.65-5.46vs Predicted
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16Yale University3.29-4.91vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.96-4.60vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.10-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.63Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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6.75Boston College4.390.1%1st Place
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7.65Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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9.56Dartmouth College3.620.0%1st Place
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10.6University of Vermont3.370.0%1st Place
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9.98Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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6.99Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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6.34Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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10.68U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Miami3.690.1%1st Place
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9.18Salve Regina University3.840.1%1st Place
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9.73U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.1%1st Place
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8.1College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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9.54Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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11.09Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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12.4Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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16.72Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alec Anderson | 12.8% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Evan Cooke | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| John Stokes | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Bernie Roesler | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 1.4% |
| Pete Hazelett | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 10.0% | 8.7% | 2.6% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 2.6% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 9.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| David Thompson | 11.0% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Taylor Vann | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 1.6% |
| Thomas Hale | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 1.5% |
| David Hernandez | 5.3% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Patrick Clancy | 5.7% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Ian Oviatt | 5.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 1.6% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 6.2% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Michael Whitford | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 1.1% |
| Emily Billing | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 3.6% |
| Brendan Heussler | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 19.3% | 5.7% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 8.6% | 74.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.