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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University2.42+7.03vs Predicted
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2Harvard University3.05+2.32vs Predicted
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3U. S. Military Academy2.05+4.76vs Predicted
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4Connecticut College1.95+4.21vs Predicted
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5Yale University2.73+0.52vs Predicted
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6Brown University2.40+2.75vs Predicted
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7Boston University1.79+0.43vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.31-0.95vs Predicted
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9Washington College1.66+0.95vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.99-2.37vs Predicted
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11University of Rhode Island2.78-5.33vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University1.32+0.42vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.89-3.88vs Predicted
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14Northeastern University1.17-3.53vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College2.03-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.03Roger Williams University2.426.0%1st Place
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4.32Harvard University3.0518.2%1st Place
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7.76U. S. Military Academy2.055.9%1st Place
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8.21Connecticut College1.954.8%1st Place
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5.52Yale University2.7311.2%1st Place
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8.75Brown University2.404.5%1st Place
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7.43Boston University1.795.2%1st Place
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7.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.317.8%1st Place
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9.95Washington College1.663.1%1st Place
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7.63Tufts University1.996.4%1st Place
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5.67University of Rhode Island2.7812.2%1st Place
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12.42Salve Regina University1.321.5%1st Place
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9.12Fordham University1.894.2%1st Place
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10.47Northeastern University1.172.6%1st Place
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7.67Bowdoin College2.036.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Cartwright | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 2.9% |
| Lachlain McGranahan | 18.2% | 15.9% | 13.9% | 11.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| James Paul | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Walter Henry | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.6% |
| Jack Egan | 11.2% | 11.8% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
| Jack Murphy | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 4.8% |
| Tyler Mowry | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 1.5% |
| Sam Bruce | 7.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 11.7% | 13.5% | 10.2% |
| Samuel Merson | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 2.5% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 12.2% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Alex Bowdler | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 8.5% | 14.0% | 45.4% |
| Kenneth Corsig | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 11.2% | 7.1% |
| Ted Bjerregaard | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 16.2% |
| Thibault Antonietti | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 1.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.