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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College3.65+8.80vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48+8.53vs Predicted
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3Brown University4.30+4.18vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+2.32vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University4.71+0.46vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.39+0.60vs Predicted
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7Harvard University4.17+0.40vs Predicted
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8Salve Regina University3.84+0.72vs Predicted
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9University of Miami3.69+0.34vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston3.93-1.29vs Predicted
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11Yale University3.29+0.12vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.56-1.65vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy3.38-2.50vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont3.37-3.57vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58-5.16vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.96-3.63vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.10-0.14vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College3.62-8.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.8Washington College3.650.0%1st Place
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10.53St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.0%1st Place
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7.18Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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6.32Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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5.46Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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6.6Boston College4.390.1%1st Place
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7.4Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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8.72Salve Regina University3.840.1%1st Place
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9.34University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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8.71College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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11.12Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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10.35Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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10.5U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont3.370.0%1st Place
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9.84U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.0%1st Place
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12.37Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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16.86Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
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9.48Dartmouth College3.620.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Whitford | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 0.7% |
| Thomas Hale | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 2.3% |
| Tommy Fink | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| David Thompson | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Alec Anderson | 14.5% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Evan Cooke | 9.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 2.6% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| John Stokes | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Patrick Clancy | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 0.9% |
| David Hernandez | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 0.9% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 7.1% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Emily Billing | 4.2% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 11.1% | 10.0% | 3.3% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 2.2% |
| Taylor Vann | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
| Pete Hazelett | 3.5% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 2.3% |
| Ian Oviatt | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 1.5% |
| Brendan Heussler | 2.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 17.0% | 6.9% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 8.0% | 75.0% |
| Bernie Roesler | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 4.3% | 1.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.