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📊 Prediction Accuracy
26.7%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.03+6.06vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.94+4.59vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.69+6.40vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.94+2.72vs Predicted
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5Harvard University1.55+3.71vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.63+1.27vs Predicted
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7Bowdoin College2.08-0.69vs Predicted
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8Dartmouth College1.95-1.02vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College1.45-0.30vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.77-3.48vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.75-3.73vs Predicted
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12Brown University1.25-2.60vs Predicted
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13Salve Regina University1.31-3.86vs Predicted
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14Boston University1.65-6.39vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.19-2.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.06Tufts University2.038.4%1st Place
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6.59Roger Williams University1.9410.0%1st Place
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9.4Northeastern University1.694.5%1st Place
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6.72Fordham University1.948.5%1st Place
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8.71Harvard University1.555.3%1st Place
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7.27Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.638.1%1st Place
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6.31Bowdoin College2.089.8%1st Place
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6.98Dartmouth College1.957.4%1st Place
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8.7Connecticut College1.454.6%1st Place
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6.52University of Rhode Island1.779.7%1st Place
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7.27Yale University1.757.2%1st Place
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9.4Brown University1.254.2%1st Place
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9.14Salve Regina University1.313.9%1st Place
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7.61Boston University1.656.7%1st Place
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12.32Washington College0.191.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Fasolo | 8.4% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 10.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% |
| Adrian van der Wal | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 8.4% |
| Peter Lobaugh | 8.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Eric Hansen | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 6.4% |
| Lucy Brock | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 2.2% |
| Christopher Lukens | 9.8% | 10.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 0.7% |
| Oliver Hurwitz | 7.4% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Harris Padegs | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 6.1% |
| Parker Colantuono | 9.7% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Nicholas Davies | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% |
| William George | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 10.9% | 9.5% |
| Nils Tullberg | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 7.9% |
| Micky Munns | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 3.0% |
| Joseph Bonacci | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 12.0% | 45.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.