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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.45+5.62vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University4.71+3.55vs Predicted
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3University of Miami3.69+6.68vs Predicted
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4Washington College3.65+5.43vs Predicted
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5Boston College4.39+1.54vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College3.62+3.71vs Predicted
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7Brown University4.30+0.01vs Predicted
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8Tufts University3.56+1.89vs Predicted
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9Harvard University4.17-1.62vs Predicted
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10U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.58+0.10vs Predicted
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11Connecticut College2.96+1.41vs Predicted
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12Yale University3.29-0.62vs Predicted
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13St. Mary's College of Maryland3.48-2.89vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy3.38-3.67vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont3.37-4.29vs Predicted
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16College of Charleston3.93-7.53vs Predicted
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17Salve Regina University3.84-8.06vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.10-1.28vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.450.1%1st Place
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5.55Roger Williams University4.710.1%1st Place
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9.68University of Miami3.690.0%1st Place
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9.43Washington College3.650.1%1st Place
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6.54Boston College4.390.1%1st Place
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9.71Dartmouth College3.620.1%1st Place
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7.01Brown University4.300.1%1st Place
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9.89Tufts University3.560.0%1st Place
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7.38Harvard University4.170.1%1st Place
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10.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.580.0%1st Place
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12.41Connecticut College2.960.0%1st Place
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11.38Yale University3.290.0%1st Place
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10.11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.480.0%1st Place
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10.33U. S. Naval Academy3.380.0%1st Place
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10.71University of Vermont3.370.0%1st Place
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8.47College of Charleston3.930.1%1st Place
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8.94Salve Regina University3.840.1%1st Place
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16.72Princeton University1.100.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Thompson | 9.4% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Alec Anderson | 11.4% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Hernandez | 3.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 1.3% |
| Michael Whitford | 5.1% | 4.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 1.5% |
| Evan Cooke | 10.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Bernie Roesler | 5.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 1.9% |
| Tommy Fink | 9.3% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Nicolas Russo-Larsson | 4.1% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 1.4% |
| John Stokes | 6.7% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Oviatt | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 1.1% |
| Brendan Heussler | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 12.3% | 18.3% | 6.8% |
| Emily Billing | 2.6% | 3.3% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 4.1% |
| Thomas Hale | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% |
| Taylor Vann | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 7.4% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 2.3% |
| Pete Hazelett | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 2.0% |
| Zeke Horowitz | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Patrick Clancy | 5.7% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Gavin Schlissel | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 7.7% | 74.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.