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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.80vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.89+6.96vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.09+5.05vs Predicted
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4University of Miami2.32+3.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03+3.52vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.07+3.24vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.25+0.28vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania1.59+1.84vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College2.51-2.11vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.81-0.53vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin2.02-1.86vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont1.58-1.49vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-2.73vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.90-4.97vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.50-3.72vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.57-6.02vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-6.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.6%1st Place
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8.96George Washington University1.895.1%1st Place
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8.05Georgetown University2.097.3%1st Place
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7.36University of Miami2.328.9%1st Place
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8.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.037.0%1st Place
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9.24Roger Williams University2.075.0%1st Place
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7.28U. S. Naval Academy2.258.4%1st Place
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9.84University of Pennsylvania1.593.8%1st Place
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6.89SUNY Maritime College2.518.6%1st Place
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9.47Old Dominion University1.815.8%1st Place
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9.14University of Wisconsin2.025.1%1st Place
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10.51University of Vermont1.584.1%1st Place
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10.27Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.9%1st Place
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9.03Yale University1.905.2%1st Place
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11.28Tufts University1.503.5%1st Place
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9.98Fordham University1.574.0%1st Place
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Priebe | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.7% |
| Edward Cook | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.4% |
| Emily Bornarth | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.9% |
| Cameron Wood | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% |
| Gavin McJones | 8.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.4% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.0% |
| Connell Phillipps | 4.1% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 11.6% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 9.3% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% |
| Connor Sheridan | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 17.7% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.