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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.76vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University2.07+7.20vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin2.02+6.10vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.25+3.19vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+5.35vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.70vs Predicted
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7University of Vermont1.58+3.48vs Predicted
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8University of Miami2.32-0.71vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.57+1.26vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.89-1.13vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.90-1.85vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.59-2.19vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.81-3.74vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.03-5.58vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-4.56vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.50-4.35vs Predicted
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17Georgetown University2.09-8.92vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.658.2%1st Place
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9.2Roger Williams University2.076.2%1st Place
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9.1University of Wisconsin2.025.5%1st Place
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7.19U. S. Naval Academy2.259.0%1st Place
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10.35Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.6%1st Place
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6.7SUNY Maritime College2.519.7%1st Place
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10.48University of Vermont1.583.2%1st Place
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7.29University of Miami2.328.5%1st Place
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10.26Fordham University1.574.2%1st Place
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8.87George Washington University1.895.2%1st Place
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9.15Yale University1.905.2%1st Place
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9.81University of Pennsylvania1.595.5%1st Place
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9.26Old Dominion University1.815.3%1st Place
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8.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.036.3%1st Place
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10.44U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.0%1st Place
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11.65Tufts University1.503.1%1st Place
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8.08Georgetown University2.097.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 8.2% | 10.8% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Wood | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% |
| Christian Spencer | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.5% |
| Gavin McJones | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Connell Phillipps | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 10.7% |
| Atlee Kohl | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% |
| Matthew Priebe | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% |
| Nathan Sih | 5.2% | 4.7% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 4.8% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.9% |
| Noyl Odom | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% |
| Emily Bornarth | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.7% |
| Connor Sheridan | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 18.4% |
| Edward Cook | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.