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📊 Prediction Accuracy
57.1%
Within 2 Positions
2.0
Avg Position Diff
7
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Brown University1.72+2.89vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.61-0.23vs Predicted
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4Brown University2.60-1.21vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.26-1.70vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.75-3.34vs Predicted
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7University of Connecticut-0.43-0.97vs Predicted
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10Wesleyan University-1.42-3.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.89Brown University1.720.1%1st Place
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2.77U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.610.2%1st Place
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2.79Brown University2.600.2%1st Place
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3.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.260.2%1st Place
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2.66Connecticut College2.750.3%1st Place
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6.03University of Connecticut-0.430.0%1st Place
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6.56Wesleyan University-1.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisa Chafee | 10.2% | 12.6% | 13.9% | 18.1% | 33.0% | 11.2% | 1.0% |
| Kayla Ellis | 23.5% | 22.3% | 21.9% | 19.6% | 11.0% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| Helen Lord | 23.0% | 21.3% | 23.1% | 19.7% | 11.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Christina Frost | 16.0% | 17.7% | 18.1% | 20.3% | 24.2% | 3.6% | 0.1% |
| Liz Dubovik | 26.1% | 24.3% | 20.4% | 18.1% | 9.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Shannan Smith | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 7.3% | 57.2% | 29.0% |
| Kellyn Maves | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 3.3% | 23.7% | 69.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.