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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.41+5.51vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.94vs Predicted
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3University of Miami1.93+5.74vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.24vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.32vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.35vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.27+3.99vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.98+1.12vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.36vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.53+0.42vs Predicted
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11Yale University1.25+1.00vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-2.99vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-3.20vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College0.42-5.46vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.71-2.96vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-5.79vs Predicted
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17Fordham University1.53-6.87vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.51Georgetown University2.4110.0%1st Place
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7.94Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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8.74University of Miami1.935.8%1st Place
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8.24U. S. Naval Academy1.956.5%1st Place
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6.32St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.0%1st Place
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6.35University of Pennsylvania2.4210.8%1st Place
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10.99George Washington University1.273.4%1st Place
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9.12Fordham University1.985.9%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.8%1st Place
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10.42Roger Williams University1.533.4%1st Place
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12.0Yale University1.252.2%1st Place
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9.01University of Wisconsin1.604.7%1st Place
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9.8Old Dominion University1.573.7%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Maritime College0.426.3%1st Place
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12.04University of Vermont0.712.1%1st Place
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10.21Tufts University1.304.7%1st Place
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10.13Fordham University1.534.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mais | 10.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.8% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 3.9% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.8% | 9.7% | 10.3% | 6.7% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Riley Read | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 7.9% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 19.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 3.8% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 12.7% | 21.7% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 7.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.