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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.41+5.39vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.16vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.98+6.02vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.53+5.88vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.30+5.30vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University1.53+4.70vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.54vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.59vs Predicted
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9University of Miami1.93-0.18vs Predicted
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10George Washington University1.27+0.95vs Predicted
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11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-2.84vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-2.05vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.25-0.97vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-7.64vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.95-6.64vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.60-6.96vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.71-5.07vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.39Georgetown University2.4110.4%1st Place
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6.16University of Pennsylvania2.4210.1%1st Place
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9.02Fordham University1.984.5%1st Place
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9.88Fordham University1.533.4%1st Place
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10.3Tufts University1.303.4%1st Place
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10.7Roger Williams University1.533.4%1st Place
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8.54SUNY Maritime College0.425.8%1st Place
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.2%1st Place
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8.82University of Miami1.936.3%1st Place
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10.95George Washington University1.273.2%1st Place
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8.16Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.7%1st Place
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9.95Old Dominion University1.574.2%1st Place
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12.03Yale University1.252.6%1st Place
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6.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.6%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Naval Academy1.956.8%1st Place
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9.04University of Wisconsin1.606.4%1st Place
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11.93University of Vermont0.712.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mais | 10.4% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.1% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 3.3% |
| Michael Burns | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.4% |
| Riley Read | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.2% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 2.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.7% | 11.6% | 11.5% |
| Will Murray | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 19.8% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.6% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 2.1% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.9% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 9.8% | 11.9% | 20.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.