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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.47vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.41vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+3.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.44vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.11vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.27+5.05vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.49vs Predicted
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8Fordham University1.53+2.00vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.42-0.50vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.25+1.70vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University1.53-0.45vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-3.07vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.71-0.87vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.98-4.97vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-5.23vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-5.80vs Predicted
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17University of Miami1.93-8.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.0%1st Place
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6.41University of Pennsylvania2.429.0%1st Place
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6.39Georgetown University2.4110.3%1st Place
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8.44U. S. Naval Academy1.955.9%1st Place
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8.11Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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11.05George Washington University1.273.1%1st Place
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6.51U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.3%1st Place
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10.0Fordham University1.534.3%1st Place
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8.5SUNY Maritime College0.425.8%1st Place
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11.7Yale University1.252.8%1st Place
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10.55Roger Williams University1.533.5%1st Place
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8.93University of Wisconsin1.606.3%1st Place
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12.13University of Vermont0.712.2%1st Place
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9.03Fordham University1.985.5%1st Place
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9.77Old Dominion University1.574.8%1st Place
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10.2Tufts University1.304.5%1st Place
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8.82University of Miami1.935.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Scott Mais | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.1% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 12.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.3% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Michael Burns | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 11.6% | 19.4% |
| Riley Read | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 10.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 14.6% | 20.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 3.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 5.6% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.3% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 3.8% | 3.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.