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📊 Prediction Accuracy
17.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.41+5.28vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.55vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.95vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+4.69vs Predicted
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5Roger Williams University1.53+5.70vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.28vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+2.06vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.27+2.59vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.46vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.25+1.89vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.71+1.10vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-2.75vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.57-3.19vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.53-3.89vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.30-4.65vs Predicted
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16SUNY Maritime College0.42-7.44vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy1.95-8.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.28Georgetown University2.4111.3%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.9%1st Place
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7.95Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.2%1st Place
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8.69University of Miami1.935.8%1st Place
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10.7Roger Williams University1.533.6%1st Place
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6.28University of Pennsylvania2.4211.4%1st Place
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9.06Fordham University1.985.3%1st Place
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10.59George Washington University1.272.9%1st Place
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6.54U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.6%1st Place
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11.89Yale University1.252.2%1st Place
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12.1University of Vermont0.712.8%1st Place
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9.25University of Wisconsin1.605.2%1st Place
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9.81Old Dominion University1.574.4%1st Place
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10.11Fordham University1.534.0%1st Place
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10.35Tufts University1.303.3%1st Place
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8.56SUNY Maritime College0.426.0%1st Place
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8.31U. S. Naval Academy1.955.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Mais | 11.3% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.9% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 7.2% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.5% |
| Riley Read | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 9.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.4% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 3.2% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 10.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.6% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 19.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.8% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 8.3% | 10.0% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 5.7% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.6% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.