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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.18vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.41+4.38vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.55vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.39vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College0.42+3.64vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.97vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.53+2.88vs Predicted
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8George Washington University1.27+2.82vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.25+2.94vs Predicted
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10Tufts University1.30+0.29vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57-0.98vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-3.02vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16-5.07vs Predicted
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14University of Miami1.93-5.07vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.95-6.72vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.53-5.53vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.71-4.67vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.18University of Pennsylvania2.4210.4%1st Place
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6.38Georgetown University2.4111.2%1st Place
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6.55St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.5%1st Place
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6.39U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.2%1st Place
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8.64SUNY Maritime College0.425.7%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University1.985.7%1st Place
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9.88Fordham University1.535.3%1st Place
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10.82George Washington University1.272.8%1st Place
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11.94Yale University1.252.4%1st Place
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10.29Tufts University1.303.1%1st Place
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10.02Old Dominion University1.574.0%1st Place
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8.98University of Wisconsin1.605.9%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.6%1st Place
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8.93University of Miami1.935.6%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Naval Academy1.956.7%1st Place
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10.47Roger Williams University1.534.0%1st Place
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12.33University of Vermont0.711.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 10.4% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 11.2% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.5% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Michael Burns | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 6.7% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 10.6% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.4% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 12.2% | 19.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Will Murray | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 1.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% |
| Riley Read | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 10.1% | 13.3% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.