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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Old Dominion University1.57+8.98vs Predicted
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2George Washington University1.27+8.88vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.16vs Predicted
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4U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+2.56vs Predicted
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5Yale University1.25+6.82vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.99vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+1.08vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.41-1.66vs Predicted
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9SUNY Maritime College0.42-0.41vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-3.51vs Predicted
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11University of Miami1.93-2.39vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.30-1.77vs Predicted
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13U. S. Naval Academy1.95-4.80vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.53-3.99vs Predicted
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15University of Wisconsin1.60-6.01vs Predicted
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16Roger Williams University1.53-5.13vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.71-4.81vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.98Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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10.88George Washington University1.273.6%1st Place
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6.16University of Pennsylvania2.4211.6%1st Place
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6.56U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3211.1%1st Place
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11.82Yale University1.252.7%1st Place
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8.99Fordham University1.985.2%1st Place
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8.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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6.34Georgetown University2.4111.3%1st Place
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8.59SUNY Maritime College0.425.9%1st Place
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6.49St. Mary's College of Maryland2.578.8%1st Place
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8.61University of Miami1.934.8%1st Place
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10.23Tufts University1.303.8%1st Place
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8.2U. S. Naval Academy1.956.2%1st Place
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10.01Fordham University1.533.7%1st Place
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8.99University of Wisconsin1.604.8%1st Place
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10.87Roger Williams University1.532.5%1st Place
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12.19University of Vermont0.712.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.5% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 11.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 11.6% | 10.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 11.1% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 18.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.2% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Scott Mais | 11.3% | 8.9% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% |
| Owen Hennessey | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 3.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
| Michael Burns | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.3% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.2% |
| Riley Read | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 9.7% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 22.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.