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📊 Prediction Accuracy
23.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.21vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.41+4.20vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+3.37vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.42vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.93+3.53vs Predicted
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6George Washington University1.27+5.00vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+2.01vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.06vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.25+2.98vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.71+1.89vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.53-1.14vs Predicted
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12Tufts University1.30-1.82vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College0.42-4.52vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy1.95-5.64vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-5.02vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.70-5.93vs Predicted
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17Roger Williams University1.53-6.61vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.21University of Pennsylvania2.4211.2%1st Place
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6.2Georgetown University2.4111.1%1st Place
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6.37U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.8%1st Place
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6.42St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.3%1st Place
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8.53University of Miami1.935.1%1st Place
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11.0George Washington University1.274.0%1st Place
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9.01Fordham University1.985.1%1st Place
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8.06Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.166.6%1st Place
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11.98Yale University1.251.6%1st Place
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11.89University of Vermont0.712.7%1st Place
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9.86Fordham University1.534.8%1st Place
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10.18Tufts University1.304.4%1st Place
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8.48SUNY Maritime College0.425.1%1st Place
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8.36U. S. Naval Academy1.956.3%1st Place
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9.98Old Dominion University1.573.0%1st Place
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10.07University of Wisconsin1.704.0%1st Place
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10.39Roger Williams University1.533.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 11.2% | 10.4% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 11.1% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.1% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 10.7% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 3.8% |
| Will Murray | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 1.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 18.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 12.3% | 20.1% |
| Michael Burns | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.7% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% |
| Nick Chisari | 5.1% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 2.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.0% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.0% | 2.6% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
| Riley Read | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.