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📊 Prediction Accuracy
41.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+5.43vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.41+4.42vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.53+7.61vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy1.95+4.09vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.12vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.40vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College0.42+1.53vs Predicted
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8University of Pennsylvania2.42-1.86vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.98-0.06vs Predicted
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10University of Miami1.93-1.55vs Predicted
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11University of Wisconsin1.70-1.36vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont0.71+0.24vs Predicted
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13George Washington University1.27-2.35vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.53-3.84vs Predicted
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15Yale University1.25-3.06vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University1.57-6.13vs Predicted
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17Tufts University1.30-6.63vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.43U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.329.6%1st Place
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6.42Georgetown University2.419.8%1st Place
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10.61Roger Williams University1.533.9%1st Place
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8.09U. S. Naval Academy1.956.7%1st Place
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8.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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6.4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.0%1st Place
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8.53SUNY Maritime College0.426.1%1st Place
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6.14University of Pennsylvania2.429.4%1st Place
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8.94Fordham University1.985.9%1st Place
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8.45University of Miami1.936.8%1st Place
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9.64University of Wisconsin1.704.0%1st Place
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12.24University of Vermont0.711.9%1st Place
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10.65George Washington University1.274.0%1st Place
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10.16Fordham University1.534.5%1st Place
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11.94Yale University1.252.4%1st Place
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9.87Old Dominion University1.574.2%1st Place
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10.37Tufts University1.303.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 9.6% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 8.4% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 9.8% | 10.4% | 9.6% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Riley Read | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 8.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 2.1% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.0% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Nick Chisari | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.9% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.4% | 10.5% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 3.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.4% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 21.0% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 4.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 12.6% | 19.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 9.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.