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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+5.45vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+8.09vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.41+3.23vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+4.56vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+3.95vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.41vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.84vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+0.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.95-0.72vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.25+1.66vs Predicted
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11George Washington University1.27-0.07vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.20vs Predicted
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13Roger Williams University1.53-2.64vs Predicted
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14University of Wisconsin1.70-4.18vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.53-5.17vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-5.77vs Predicted
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17University of Vermont0.71-4.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.4%1st Place
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10.09Old Dominion University1.573.8%1st Place
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6.23Georgetown University2.4110.5%1st Place
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8.56University of Miami1.935.7%1st Place
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8.95Fordham University1.985.0%1st Place
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.5%1st Place
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6.16University of Pennsylvania2.4210.5%1st Place
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8.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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8.28U. S. Naval Academy1.956.0%1st Place
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11.66Yale University1.253.0%1st Place
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10.93George Washington University1.273.3%1st Place
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8.8SUNY Maritime College1.886.3%1st Place
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10.36Roger Williams University1.534.0%1st Place
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9.82University of Wisconsin1.704.6%1st Place
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9.83Fordham University1.534.1%1st Place
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10.23Tufts University1.303.9%1st Place
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12.07University of Vermont0.712.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.4% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.5% |
| Scott Mais | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.6% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.5% | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.5% | 11.0% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 16.9% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 3.2% |
| Riley Read | 4.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% |
| Michael Burns | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.3% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.7% | 12.4% | 20.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.