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📊 Prediction Accuracy
5.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+5.45vs Predicted
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2University of Miami1.93+6.59vs Predicted
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3Roger Williams University1.53+7.41vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.96vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.92vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.92vs Predicted
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7George Washington University1.27+3.74vs Predicted
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8U. S. Naval Academy1.95-0.04vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-2.58vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.41-3.59vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania2.42-4.85vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-2.10vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.30-2.85vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.25-2.17vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.53-4.92vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.71-3.89vs Predicted
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17University of Wisconsin1.70-6.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.3%1st Place
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8.59University of Miami1.935.9%1st Place
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10.41Roger Williams University1.533.4%1st Place
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7.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.0%1st Place
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8.92SUNY Maritime College1.884.5%1st Place
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8.92Fordham University1.986.2%1st Place
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10.74George Washington University1.273.5%1st Place
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7.96U. S. Naval Academy1.957.2%1st Place
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6.42U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.3%1st Place
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6.41Georgetown University2.4110.0%1st Place
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6.15University of Pennsylvania2.4210.3%1st Place
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9.9Old Dominion University1.575.1%1st Place
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10.15Tufts University1.303.7%1st Place
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11.83Yale University1.252.2%1st Place
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10.08Fordham University1.534.0%1st Place
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12.11University of Vermont0.712.5%1st Place
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10.01University of Wisconsin1.703.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 10.3% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.9% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| Riley Read | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.5% |
| Will Murray | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.2% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.8% |
| Oscar MacGillivray | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 11.4% |
| Trenton Shaw | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.3% | 9.2% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 10.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.3% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 8.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 9.6% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 14.1% | 20.4% |
| Samuel Bartel | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.