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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+6.63vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.98+6.74vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.53+6.48vs Predicted
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4University of Miami1.93+4.32vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.57+4.45vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.02vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-0.92vs Predicted
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8University of Wisconsin1.70+1.47vs Predicted
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9Yale University1.25+2.33vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.53-0.01vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.72vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-5.89vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.41-6.84vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.71-2.63vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy1.95-7.05vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-6.34vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.4%1st Place
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8.74Fordham University1.985.0%1st Place
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9.48Fordham University1.534.7%1st Place
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8.32University of Miami1.935.9%1st Place
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9.45Old Dominion University1.573.9%1st Place
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5.98University of Pennsylvania2.4210.9%1st Place
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6.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3211.2%1st Place
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9.47University of Wisconsin1.704.3%1st Place
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11.33Yale University1.252.9%1st Place
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9.99Roger Williams University1.534.3%1st Place
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8.28SUNY Maritime College1.884.7%1st Place
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6.11St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.1%1st Place
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6.16Georgetown University2.4110.1%1st Place
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11.37University of Vermont0.713.1%1st Place
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7.95U. S. Naval Academy1.956.5%1st Place
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9.66Tufts University1.305.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Murray | 7.4% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 7.5% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 2.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 7.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 11.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 20.4% |
| Riley Read | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 10.1% | 10.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 4.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 3.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 10.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.7% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 3.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.2% | 14.3% | 21.1% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.2% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.