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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College1.88+7.69vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University1.53+8.26vs Predicted
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3University of Wisconsin1.60+5.78vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.63vs Predicted
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5University of Miami1.93+3.28vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.98+2.65vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania2.42-0.92vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.41-1.87vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.82vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.53-0.45vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-4.97vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.95-4.14vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.25-1.70vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University1.57-4.63vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.30-5.24vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.71-4.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.69SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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10.26Roger Williams University1.532.8%1st Place
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8.78University of Wisconsin1.605.3%1st Place
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7.63Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.4%1st Place
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8.28University of Miami1.935.6%1st Place
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8.65Fordham University1.985.3%1st Place
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6.08University of Pennsylvania2.4210.9%1st Place
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6.13Georgetown University2.4110.5%1st Place
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6.18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.8%1st Place
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9.55Fordham University1.533.6%1st Place
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6.03U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3211.4%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Naval Academy1.957.0%1st Place
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11.3Yale University1.252.9%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University1.573.9%1st Place
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9.76Tufts University1.303.9%1st Place
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11.46University of Vermont0.712.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% |
| Riley Read | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 10.4% | 12.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% |
| Will Murray | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 1.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.5% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% |
| Scott Mais | 10.5% | 11.2% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.8% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| Michael Burns | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 11.4% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Trenton Shaw | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 19.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 7.0% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 8.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 20.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.