Race 1A

hws-fall

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

41.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Louis Padnos 18.8% 18.0% 14.9% 13.3% 11.9% 9.9% 5.8% 3.4% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Annie Schmidt 6.3% 8.3% 9.3% 8.8% 10.7% 9.6% 12.1% 11.2% 11.1% 8.6% 3.6% 0.4%
Cameron Fraser 12.0% 8.0% 11.2% 10.8% 10.0% 12.7% 11.1% 10.4% 7.3% 5.3% 1.1% 0.1%
Liana Folger 4.9% 6.6% 6.9% 8.5% 10.4% 10.7% 10.4% 11.7% 11.6% 11.5% 6.3% 0.5%
Evan Read 14.2% 15.2% 14.5% 12.5% 10.8% 10.8% 8.5% 5.6% 5.2% 1.7% 1.0% 0.0%
Chase Quinn 17.8% 17.6% 16.7% 11.3% 12.3% 8.4% 8.0% 3.8% 2.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0%
Eleanor Conroy 3.7% 3.6% 2.8% 5.1% 6.3% 5.9% 7.8% 10.2% 13.6% 19.2% 20.1% 1.7%
Soren Walljasper 4.6% 5.1% 4.0% 7.2% 6.1% 8.1% 8.2% 12.2% 13.8% 17.8% 11.7% 1.2%
Tony Collins 8.9% 9.8% 12.1% 11.6% 10.3% 10.9% 11.4% 11.4% 7.1% 5.2% 1.3% 0.0%
Griffin Orr 6.6% 6.2% 5.6% 8.6% 8.4% 8.0% 11.9% 13.0% 14.4% 9.9% 7.2% 0.2%
Alex Gatto 1.9% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0% 2.7% 4.4% 4.7% 6.2% 9.9% 16.6% 41.2% 7.1%
Earl Lin 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 1.0% 1.7% 5.9% 88.8%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.