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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.6
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Miami1.93+7.31vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+5.67vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.98vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.25vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32+1.15vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.53+3.50vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+2.37vs Predicted
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8Roger Williams University1.53+1.99vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.95-0.97vs Predicted
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10Yale University1.25+1.33vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.41-4.84vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-3.48vs Predicted
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13Tufts University1.30-3.19vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.98-5.04vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.71-3.66vs Predicted
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16University of Wisconsin1.60-7.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.31University of Miami1.935.5%1st Place
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7.67Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.5%1st Place
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5.98University of Pennsylvania2.4210.7%1st Place
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6.25St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.9%1st Place
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6.15U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.9%1st Place
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9.5Fordham University1.534.8%1st Place
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9.37Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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9.99Roger Williams University1.534.7%1st Place
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8.03U. S. Naval Academy1.955.7%1st Place
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11.33Yale University1.252.1%1st Place
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6.16Georgetown University2.4110.0%1st Place
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8.52SUNY Maritime College1.885.7%1st Place
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9.81Tufts University1.303.9%1st Place
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8.96Fordham University1.984.8%1st Place
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11.34University of Vermont0.712.5%1st Place
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8.62University of Wisconsin1.606.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aidan Dennis | 5.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.2% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.7% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.9% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Michael Burns | 4.8% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 6.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 7.0% |
| Riley Read | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 10.1% | 9.5% |
| Trenton Shaw | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 2.8% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 20.7% |
| Scott Mais | 10.0% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 21.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 4.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.