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📊 Prediction Accuracy
25.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy1.95+6.75vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University1.57+7.26vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.38vs Predicted
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4Fordham University1.98+4.51vs Predicted
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5SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.26vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-0.01vs Predicted
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7University of Miami1.93+1.07vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont0.71+3.45vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-3.12vs Predicted
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10Georgetown University2.41-4.12vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.53-1.88vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.60-3.57vs Predicted
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13Yale University1.25-1.89vs Predicted
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14University of Pennsylvania1.60-4.58vs Predicted
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15Roger Williams University1.53-5.14vs Predicted
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16Tufts University1.30-6.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.75U. S. Naval Academy1.958.1%1st Place
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9.26Old Dominion University1.574.4%1st Place
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7.38Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.5%1st Place
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8.51Fordham University1.985.9%1st Place
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8.26SUNY Maritime College1.885.2%1st Place
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5.99St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.2%1st Place
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8.07University of Miami1.937.0%1st Place
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11.45University of Vermont0.712.4%1st Place
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5.88U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3211.5%1st Place
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5.88Georgetown University2.4111.2%1st Place
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9.12Fordham University1.534.6%1st Place
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8.43University of Wisconsin1.605.1%1st Place
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11.11Yale University1.253.0%1st Place
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9.42University of Pennsylvania1.605.3%1st Place
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9.86Roger Williams University1.533.4%1st Place
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9.64Tufts University1.304.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trenton Shaw | 8.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.4% |
| Will Murray | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.8% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 3.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 11.8% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.0% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 13.1% | 21.6% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 11.5% | 11.4% | 10.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Scott Mais | 11.2% | 10.2% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Michael Burns | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 6.2% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.5% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 10.4% | 12.0% | 19.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 7.7% |
| Riley Read | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.3% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.