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📊 Prediction Accuracy
12.5%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Wisconsin1.60+7.55vs Predicted
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2Fordham University1.53+7.21vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.99vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+3.36vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy1.95+2.64vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.88+2.26vs Predicted
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7University of Pennsylvania1.60+2.36vs Predicted
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8Tufts University1.30+1.69vs Predicted
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9University of Vermont0.71+2.36vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University1.53-0.27vs Predicted
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11Georgetown University2.41-5.15vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-3.52vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-7.09vs Predicted
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14Yale University1.25-2.90vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University1.57-5.65vs Predicted
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16University of Miami1.93-7.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.55University of Wisconsin1.605.1%1st Place
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9.21Fordham University1.534.9%1st Place
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5.99St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5710.5%1st Place
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7.36Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.167.4%1st Place
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7.64U. S. Naval Academy1.957.6%1st Place
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8.26SUNY Maritime College1.885.9%1st Place
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9.36University of Pennsylvania1.604.1%1st Place
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9.69Tufts University1.303.7%1st Place
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11.36University of Vermont0.712.6%1st Place
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9.73Roger Williams University1.534.5%1st Place
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5.85Georgetown University2.4112.2%1st Place
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8.48Fordham University1.985.1%1st Place
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5.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3211.6%1st Place
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11.1Yale University1.252.9%1st Place
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9.35Old Dominion University1.574.8%1st Place
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8.15University of Miami1.937.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bailey | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Michael Burns | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 10.5% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Will Murray | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Trenton Shaw | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.7% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.4% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 12.6% | 22.1% |
| Riley Read | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 10.5% |
| Scott Mais | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 11.6% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 17.7% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.8% |
| Aidan Dennis | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 2.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.