← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
43.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Yale University1.25+10.05vs Predicted
-
2Old Dominion University1.57+7.20vs Predicted
-
3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.16+4.68vs Predicted
-
4University of Wisconsin1.60+4.37vs Predicted
-
5Georgetown University2.41+0.77vs Predicted
-
6U. S. Naval Academy1.95+1.64vs Predicted
-
7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.09vs Predicted
-
8Fordham University1.98+0.47vs Predicted
-
9Tufts University1.30+0.44vs Predicted
-
10SUNY Maritime College1.88-1.71vs Predicted
-
11Fordham University1.53-1.57vs Predicted
-
12University of Miami1.93-3.79vs Predicted
-
13St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-6.95vs Predicted
-
14University of Vermont0.71-2.81vs Predicted
-
15Roger Williams University1.53-5.17vs Predicted
-
16University of Pennsylvania1.60-6.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
11.05Yale University1.252.9%1st Place
-
9.2Old Dominion University1.575.1%1st Place
-
7.68Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.168.2%1st Place
-
8.37University of Wisconsin1.606.2%1st Place
-
5.77Georgetown University2.4111.7%1st Place
-
7.64U. S. Naval Academy1.956.6%1st Place
-
5.91U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3212.0%1st Place
-
8.47Fordham University1.986.1%1st Place
-
9.44Tufts University1.304.3%1st Place
-
8.29SUNY Maritime College1.885.9%1st Place
-
9.43Fordham University1.534.7%1st Place
-
8.21University of Miami1.935.9%1st Place
-
6.05St. Mary's College of Maryland2.579.6%1st Place
-
11.19University of Vermont0.712.9%1st Place
-
9.83Roger Williams University1.534.0%1st Place
-
9.47University of Pennsylvania1.604.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christophe Chaumont | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.3% | 20.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 6.7% |
| Will Murray | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 1.8% |
| Jonathan Bailey | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% |
| Scott Mais | 11.7% | 11.2% | 11.4% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Trenton Shaw | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 12.0% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Porter Kavle | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Patrick Mulcahy | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 7.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Michael Burns | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.1% |
| Aidan Dennis | 5.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.0% |
| Owen Hennessey | 9.6% | 11.4% | 11.0% | 9.4% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.7% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Hamilton | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 13.8% | 20.2% |
| Riley Read | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.3% |
| Samuel Gavula | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 8.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.