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📊 Prediction Accuracy
75.0%
Within 2 Positions
1.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland3.60+2.91vs Predicted
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2Dartmouth College3.37+2.36vs Predicted
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3University of Buffalo2.44+3.63vs Predicted
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4Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65-0.25vs Predicted
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5Eckerd College2.89+0.54vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University2.71-0.04vs Predicted
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7Boston University3.00-1.85vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.52-1.70vs Predicted
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9University of Wisconsin2.11-1.69vs Predicted
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10Washington College1.81-1.97vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.24-1.65vs Predicted
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12Wesleyan University-1.20-0.29vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.91St. Mary's College of Maryland3.600.2%1st Place
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4.36Dartmouth College3.370.1%1st Place
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6.63University of Buffalo2.440.1%1st Place
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3.75Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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5.54Eckerd College2.890.1%1st Place
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5.96Roger Williams University2.710.1%1st Place
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5.15Boston University3.000.1%1st Place
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6.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.520.1%1st Place
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7.31University of Wisconsin2.110.0%1st Place
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8.03Washington College1.810.0%1st Place
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9.35Cornell University1.240.0%1st Place
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11.71Wesleyan University-1.200.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Quinn | 17.1% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 14.1% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Evan Read | 14.0% | 14.7% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Griffin Orr | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.8% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 11.8% | 6.9% | 0.3% |
| Louis Padnos | 17.9% | 20.5% | 14.8% | 12.3% | 11.7% | 8.7% | 6.1% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Tony Collins | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 10.7% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 2.8% | 0.1% |
| Annie Schmidt | 7.6% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 8.2% | 3.2% | 0.2% |
| Cameron Fraser | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 10.6% | 11.8% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.1% |
| Liana Folger | 8.1% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 10.1% | 11.0% | 13.9% | 9.0% | 6.0% | 0.7% |
| Soren Walljasper | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 14.3% | 14.2% | 14.0% | 11.7% | 0.8% |
| Eleanor Conroy | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 12.9% | 20.7% | 20.0% | 2.0% |
| Alex Gatto | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 17.8% | 41.3% | 6.6% |
| Earl Lin | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.9% | 89.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.