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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Bowdoin College2.38+3.55vs Predicted
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2Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+6.05vs Predicted
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3SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+12.39vs Predicted
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4Tufts University2.12+2.09vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.39+3.32vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49+6.23vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.87+1.89vs Predicted
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8University of Rhode Island1.59-0.70vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.43+2.94vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.18-0.87vs Predicted
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11Northwestern University0.89-0.63vs Predicted
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12Boston University1.14-2.78vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-3.51vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.54-2.54vs Predicted
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15Tufts University1.43-6.71vs Predicted
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16Brown University1.86-9.79vs Predicted
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17Harvard University0.16-3.94vs Predicted
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18The Citadel1.22-6.98vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.55Bowdoin College2.3816.2%1st Place
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8.05Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.455.5%1st Place
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15.39SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.0%1st Place
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6.09Tufts University2.1211.5%1st Place
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8.32Northeastern University1.395.8%1st Place
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12.23U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.492.2%1st Place
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8.89Princeton University1.874.6%1st Place
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7.3University of Rhode Island1.598.4%1st Place
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11.94Connecticut College0.432.8%1st Place
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9.13Northeastern University1.184.8%1st Place
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10.37Northwestern University0.893.1%1st Place
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9.22Boston University1.145.0%1st Place
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9.49Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.5%1st Place
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11.46University of Vermont0.542.6%1st Place
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8.29Tufts University1.435.6%1st Place
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6.21Brown University1.8611.2%1st Place
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13.06Harvard University0.162.6%1st Place
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11.02The Citadel1.222.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Hall | 16.2% | 15.0% | 14.2% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 5.5% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Kristin Hess | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 45.2% |
| Trevor Davis | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Everett Nash | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Aidan Brown | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 13.2% | 9.4% |
| Connor Mraz | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 10.0% | 10.1% | 11.1% | 9.4% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Thomas Quinn | 3.1% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 3.0% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.0% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 1.2% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| Luke Quine | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 8.9% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 5.7% |
| Jack Flores | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 0.1% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 11.2% | 10.9% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Paul Kuechler | 2.6% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 14.7% | 16.5% |
| Gregory Walters | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 4.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.