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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Stony Brook-0.40+14.30vs Predicted
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2University of Rhode Island1.59+5.47vs Predicted
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3Princeton University1.87+5.65vs Predicted
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4University of Vermont0.54+7.41vs Predicted
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5Boston University1.14+4.38vs Predicted
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6Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.45+1.80vs Predicted
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7Harvard University0.16+6.40vs Predicted
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8The Citadel1.22+2.64vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.43+3.03vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.18-0.82vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.39-2.78vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.13-2.32vs Predicted
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13Brown University1.86-6.76vs Predicted
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14Tufts University1.43-5.92vs Predicted
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15Tufts University2.12-9.03vs Predicted
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16Bowdoin College2.38-11.33vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University0.89-6.54vs Predicted
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18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.49-5.58vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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15.3SUNY Stony Brook-0.401.0%1st Place
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7.47University of Rhode Island1.597.6%1st Place
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8.65Princeton University1.875.9%1st Place
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11.41University of Vermont0.542.6%1st Place
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9.38Boston University1.145.2%1st Place
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7.8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.457.0%1st Place
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13.4Harvard University0.161.9%1st Place
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10.64The Citadel1.223.4%1st Place
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12.03Connecticut College0.432.5%1st Place
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9.18Northeastern University1.184.7%1st Place
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8.22Northeastern University1.395.3%1st Place
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9.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.1.134.0%1st Place
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6.24Brown University1.8610.3%1st Place
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8.08Tufts University1.436.8%1st Place
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5.97Tufts University2.1211.0%1st Place
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4.67Bowdoin College2.3815.1%1st Place
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10.46Northwestern University0.894.0%1st Place
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12.42U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.491.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristin Hess | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 9.0% | 14.9% | 44.6% |
| Ben Rosenberg | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Luke Quine | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 5.9% |
| Tiare Sierra | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 1.1% |
| Julius Heitkoetter | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Paul Kuechler | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 11.5% | 16.0% | 17.3% |
| Gregory Walters | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 4.0% |
| Andrew Powers | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 9.7% |
| Lucia Loosbrock | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 0.9% |
| Everett Nash | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Kai Ponting | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 1.4% |
| Leyton Borcherding | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Flores | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.8% |
| Trevor Davis | 11.0% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Thomas Hall | 15.1% | 15.3% | 13.0% | 11.7% | 11.2% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Thomas Quinn | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 2.5% |
| Aidan Brown | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 14.9% | 9.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.