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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northeastern University1.59+6.10vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+6.65vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.71+3.06vs Predicted
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4Northwestern University1.49+2.73vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+0.75vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.87vs Predicted
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7Princeton University0.27+4.33vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.33-0.45vs Predicted
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9Connecticut College0.38+2.07vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.81-3.88vs Predicted
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11Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08-2.22vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College0.76-1.89vs Predicted
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13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-1.72vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.46-3.11vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-0.33vs Predicted
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16Harvard University-0.08-2.99vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-3.84vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.45-7.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.1Northeastern University1.597.8%1st Place
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8.65Boston University0.975.5%1st Place
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6.06Northeastern University1.7110.2%1st Place
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6.73Northwestern University1.499.2%1st Place
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5.75Tufts University1.6711.9%1st Place
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7.87U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.227.4%1st Place
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11.33Princeton University0.272.8%1st Place
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7.55Brown University1.337.5%1st Place
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11.07Connecticut College0.383.3%1st Place
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6.12University of Rhode Island1.8110.6%1st Place
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8.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.085.9%1st Place
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10.11Bowdoin College0.763.9%1st Place
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11.28Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.3%1st Place
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10.89University of Vermont0.463.5%1st Place
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14.67SUNY Stony Brook-0.670.8%1st Place
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13.01Harvard University-0.082.0%1st Place
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13.16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.6%1st Place
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10.89Northwestern University0.452.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 10.2% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 10.3% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 6.5% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.3% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 10.6% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.9% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 2.8% |
| Max Case | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.9% |
| Charles Morris | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 4.9% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 10.2% | 16.7% | 34.5% |
| Matthew Cabot | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 15.8% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 9.3% | 11.5% | 15.7% | 15.8% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 3.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.