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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University0.97+7.56vs Predicted
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2Princeton University0.27+9.17vs Predicted
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3Brown University1.33+4.62vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+4.74vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.81+1.03vs Predicted
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6Tufts University1.67-0.27vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71-1.05vs Predicted
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8Northwestern University1.49-1.38vs Predicted
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9SUNY Stony Brook-0.67+5.81vs Predicted
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10Connecticut College0.38+1.14vs Predicted
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11Harvard University-0.08+2.06vs Predicted
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12Bowdoin College0.76-1.78vs Predicted
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13Northwestern University0.45-2.23vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-5.92vs Predicted
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15Northeastern University1.59-7.90vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-4.94vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-3.79vs Predicted
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18University of Vermont0.46-6.85vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.56Boston University0.975.7%1st Place
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11.17Princeton University0.273.0%1st Place
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7.62Brown University1.336.7%1st Place
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8.74Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.085.1%1st Place
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6.03University of Rhode Island1.8111.3%1st Place
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5.73Tufts University1.6713.4%1st Place
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5.95Northeastern University1.7111.7%1st Place
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6.62Northwestern University1.499.1%1st Place
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14.81SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.1%1st Place
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11.14Connecticut College0.382.6%1st Place
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13.06Harvard University-0.081.7%1st Place
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10.22Bowdoin College0.763.0%1st Place
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10.77Northwestern University0.452.5%1st Place
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8.08U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.226.7%1st Place
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7.1Northeastern University1.598.6%1st Place
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11.06Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.9%1st Place
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13.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.7%1st Place
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11.15University of Vermont0.463.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 5.9% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| John Eastman | 13.4% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Will Priebe | 11.7% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 10.4% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.1% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 15.0% | 35.7% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.6% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 4.9% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 10.7% | 11.3% | 13.2% | 15.3% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% |
| Lars Osell | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.3% | 0.9% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Max Case | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 11.3% | 15.9% | 16.6% |
| Charles Morris | 3.3% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.