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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.92vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+6.63vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.67+2.84vs Predicted
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4University of Rhode Island1.81+1.98vs Predicted
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5Connecticut College0.38+6.22vs Predicted
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6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+1.86vs Predicted
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7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+1.70vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.71-2.13vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.27+2.23vs Predicted
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10Brown University1.33-2.45vs Predicted
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11Harvard University-0.08+2.07vs Predicted
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12Northeastern University1.59-4.99vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+0.26vs Predicted
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14Northwestern University0.45-2.99vs Predicted
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15University of Vermont0.46-3.96vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-4.80vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-2.06vs Predicted
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18Bowdoin College0.76-8.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.92Northwestern University1.498.3%1st Place
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8.63Boston University0.975.9%1st Place
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5.84Tufts University1.6711.3%1st Place
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5.98University of Rhode Island1.8111.0%1st Place
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11.22Connecticut College0.382.6%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.227.3%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.085.6%1st Place
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5.87Northeastern University1.7112.4%1st Place
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11.23Princeton University0.272.6%1st Place
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7.55Brown University1.336.5%1st Place
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13.07Harvard University-0.081.6%1st Place
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7.01Northeastern University1.598.6%1st Place
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13.26U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.1%1st Place
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11.01Northwestern University0.453.4%1st Place
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11.04University of Vermont0.462.8%1st Place
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11.2Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.7%1st Place
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14.94SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.2%1st Place
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9.64Bowdoin College0.765.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 0.5% |
| John Eastman | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 11.0% | 10.1% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.4% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 4.7% |
| Lars Osell | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Will Priebe | 12.4% | 11.3% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.4% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 16.4% | 15.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.6% | 6.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 14.2% | 18.4% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 7.2% | 4.9% |
| Charles Morris | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 4.3% |
| Max Case | 2.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 5.5% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 10.5% | 15.3% | 36.8% |
| Christine Reimer | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.