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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Rhode Island1.81+5.06vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+6.57vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.67+2.99vs Predicted
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4Brown University1.33+3.52vs Predicted
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5Northwestern University1.49+1.78vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.59+1.22vs Predicted
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7Northwestern University0.45+3.95vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+0.45vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71-3.18vs Predicted
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10U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-2.14vs Predicted
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11Princeton University0.27+0.39vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.38-0.61vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+0.13vs Predicted
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14University of Vermont0.46-3.18vs Predicted
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15Bowdoin College0.76-4.96vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-4.87vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-2.11vs Predicted
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18Harvard University-0.08-4.99vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.06University of Rhode Island1.8110.5%1st Place
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8.57Boston University0.975.0%1st Place
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5.99Tufts University1.6711.1%1st Place
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7.52Brown University1.337.5%1st Place
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6.78Northwestern University1.499.3%1st Place
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7.22Northeastern University1.597.4%1st Place
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10.95Northwestern University0.452.9%1st Place
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8.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.086.4%1st Place
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5.82Northeastern University1.7112.0%1st Place
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7.86U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.227.4%1st Place
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11.39Princeton University0.272.9%1st Place
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11.39Connecticut College0.382.9%1st Place
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13.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.4%1st Place
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10.82University of Vermont0.463.4%1st Place
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10.04Bowdoin College0.764.0%1st Place
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11.13Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.0%1st Place
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14.89SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.1%1st Place
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13.01Harvard University-0.081.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 10.5% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.7% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| John Eastman | 11.1% | 10.6% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Charlotte Costikyan | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Shea Smith | 9.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 5.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 6.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 12.0% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 5.3% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 15.9% | 16.7% |
| Charles Morris | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 4.8% |
| Christine Reimer | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 2.5% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 5.9% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 15.6% | 36.4% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 11.7% | 15.0% | 15.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.