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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+7.53vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+6.81vs Predicted
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3Northeastern University1.71+3.03vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+3.91vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+0.99vs Predicted
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6Northwestern University1.49+0.78vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59+0.04vs Predicted
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8Brown University1.42-0.74vs Predicted
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9University of Rhode Island1.81-3.03vs Predicted
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10Bowdoin College0.76+0.03vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont0.46-0.04vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.38-0.78vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+0.41vs Predicted
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14Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-2.83vs Predicted
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15Northwestern University0.45-4.07vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-4.73vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-2.28vs Predicted
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18Harvard University-0.08-5.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.53Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.086.4%1st Place
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8.81Boston University0.975.0%1st Place
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6.03Northeastern University1.7110.2%1st Place
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7.91U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.227.6%1st Place
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5.99Tufts University1.6711.1%1st Place
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6.78Northwestern University1.499.7%1st Place
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7.04Northeastern University1.598.2%1st Place
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7.26Brown University1.427.8%1st Place
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5.97University of Rhode Island1.8111.8%1st Place
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10.03Bowdoin College0.763.5%1st Place
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10.96University of Vermont0.463.0%1st Place
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11.22Connecticut College0.382.9%1st Place
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13.41U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.8%1st Place
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11.17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.8%1st Place
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10.93Northwestern University0.452.6%1st Place
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11.27Princeton University0.273.1%1st Place
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14.72SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.0%1st Place
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12.99Harvard University-0.081.6%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Scherer | 6.4% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 10.2% | 11.5% | 9.2% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| John Eastman | 11.1% | 10.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 9.2% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Connor Macken | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 11.8% | 11.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 2.6% |
| Charles Morris | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.9% | 4.2% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 6.3% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 12.0% | 15.8% | 18.4% |
| Max Case | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 9.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.7% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 5.8% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 15.1% | 35.5% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 9.2% | 11.9% | 14.9% | 14.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.