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📊 Prediction Accuracy
55.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University1.67+4.86vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.38+9.11vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island1.81+3.15vs Predicted
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4U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22+4.02vs Predicted
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5Northeastern University1.71+0.95vs Predicted
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6Northeastern University1.59+1.14vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.42+0.22vs Predicted
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8Boston University0.97+0.79vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+4.22vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08-1.30vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College0.76-0.84vs Predicted
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12Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-0.73vs Predicted
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13University of Vermont0.46-1.99vs Predicted
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14Harvard University-0.08-1.14vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.27-3.72vs Predicted
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16SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-1.41vs Predicted
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17Northwestern University1.49-10.10vs Predicted
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18Northwestern University0.45-7.21vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.86Tufts University1.6711.8%1st Place
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11.11Connecticut College0.382.9%1st Place
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6.15University of Rhode Island1.8110.2%1st Place
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8.02U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.225.9%1st Place
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5.95Northeastern University1.7112.2%1st Place
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7.14Northeastern University1.598.1%1st Place
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7.22Brown University1.428.8%1st Place
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8.79Boston University0.975.5%1st Place
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13.22U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.6%1st Place
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8.7Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.084.9%1st Place
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10.16Bowdoin College0.763.8%1st Place
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11.27Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.4%1st Place
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11.01University of Vermont0.463.3%1st Place
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12.86Harvard University-0.081.5%1st Place
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11.28Princeton University0.272.6%1st Place
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14.59SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.1%1st Place
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6.9Northwestern University1.499.1%1st Place
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10.79Northwestern University0.453.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Eastman | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 5.9% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 10.2% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Will Priebe | 12.2% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% |
| Connor Macken | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 16.4% | 16.2% |
| Emily Scherer | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.8% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 2.1% |
| Max Case | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.0% |
| Charles Morris | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.2% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.1% | 11.8% | 14.1% | 13.6% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 5.8% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 10.5% | 14.1% | 35.0% |
| Shea Smith | 9.1% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Anton de Lesseps | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.