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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Boston University0.97+7.28vs Predicted
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2Northwestern University1.49+4.46vs Predicted
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3Tufts University1.67+2.59vs Predicted
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4Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+4.29vs Predicted
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5University of Rhode Island1.81+0.87vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont0.46+4.43vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.71-1.29vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.31vs Predicted
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9Brown University1.42-2.05vs Predicted
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10Northeastern University1.59-3.20vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College0.76-1.43vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.38-1.22vs Predicted
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13Harvard University-0.08-0.52vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.27-3.18vs Predicted
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15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-2.32vs Predicted
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16Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-5.16vs Predicted
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17SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-3.25vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.28Boston University0.975.6%1st Place
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6.46Northwestern University1.499.5%1st Place
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5.59Tufts University1.6711.5%1st Place
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8.29Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.085.9%1st Place
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5.87University of Rhode Island1.8110.5%1st Place
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10.43University of Vermont0.464.0%1st Place
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5.71Northeastern University1.7112.7%1st Place
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7.69U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.225.9%1st Place
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6.95Brown University1.428.8%1st Place
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6.8Northeastern University1.598.1%1st Place
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9.57Bowdoin College0.763.8%1st Place
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10.78Connecticut College0.383.0%1st Place
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12.48Harvard University-0.081.8%1st Place
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10.82Princeton University0.272.8%1st Place
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12.68U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.5%1st Place
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10.84Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.5%1st Place
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13.75SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% |
| Shea Smith | 9.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| John Eastman | 11.5% | 10.8% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Emily Scherer | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 10.5% | 11.6% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Morris | 4.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.2% |
| Will Priebe | 12.7% | 10.9% | 11.0% | 8.7% | 10.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Lars Osell | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Connor Macken | 8.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 2.3% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 7.4% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 9.8% | 12.7% | 16.0% | 16.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 2.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 6.6% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| Max Case | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 11.3% | 9.2% | 6.3% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.2% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 9.5% | 16.0% | 35.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.