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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Northwestern University1.49+5.30vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College0.38+8.85vs Predicted
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3Boston University0.97+5.39vs Predicted
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4Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51+6.71vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+0.51vs Predicted
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6University of Rhode Island1.81-0.30vs Predicted
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7Brown University1.420.00vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University1.59-1.04vs Predicted
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9Bowdoin College0.76+0.69vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont0.46+0.54vs Predicted
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11Northeastern University1.71-5.22vs Predicted
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12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05+0.52vs Predicted
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13Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08-4.84vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.27-3.05vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-0.99vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-8.38vs Predicted
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17Harvard University-0.08-4.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.3Northwestern University1.499.6%1st Place
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10.85Connecticut College0.382.9%1st Place
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8.39Boston University0.975.0%1st Place
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10.71Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.513.0%1st Place
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5.51Tufts University1.6712.6%1st Place
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5.7University of Rhode Island1.8111.6%1st Place
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7.0Brown University1.428.1%1st Place
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6.96Northeastern University1.598.2%1st Place
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9.69Bowdoin College0.763.5%1st Place
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10.54University of Vermont0.462.6%1st Place
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5.78Northeastern University1.7110.9%1st Place
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12.52U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.052.1%1st Place
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8.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.087.3%1st Place
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10.95Princeton University0.273.1%1st Place
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14.01SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.1%1st Place
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7.62U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.226.5%1st Place
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12.31Harvard University-0.081.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shea Smith | 9.6% | 9.5% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Liam Gronda | 2.9% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.4% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 5.9% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Max Case | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 6.7% |
| John Eastman | 12.6% | 12.1% | 11.7% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 11.6% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Macken | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Christine Reimer | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| Charles Morris | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 4.5% |
| Will Priebe | 10.9% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lewis Bragg | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 11.8% | 15.8% | 17.2% |
| Emily Scherer | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 9.6% | 7.2% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 9.7% | 16.0% | 37.2% |
| Lars Osell | 6.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 9.4% | 11.9% | 15.0% | 15.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.