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📊 Prediction Accuracy
47.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.08+7.16vs Predicted
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2Boston University0.97+6.44vs Predicted
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3Northwestern University1.49+3.50vs Predicted
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4Harvard University-0.08+8.53vs Predicted
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5Tufts University1.67+0.75vs Predicted
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6Brown University1.42+0.84vs Predicted
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7Northeastern University1.59-0.26vs Predicted
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8U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.22-0.27vs Predicted
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9Northeastern University1.71-3.22vs Predicted
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10University of Rhode Island1.81-4.29vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College0.76-1.44vs Predicted
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12Connecticut College0.38-1.25vs Predicted
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13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.05-0.40vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.27-3.17vs Predicted
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15SUNY Stony Brook-0.67-1.09vs Predicted
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16University of Vermont0.46-5.53vs Predicted
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17Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.51-6.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.16Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.085.1%1st Place
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8.44Boston University0.975.3%1st Place
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6.5Northwestern University1.4910.0%1st Place
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12.53Harvard University-0.081.8%1st Place
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5.75Tufts University1.6710.8%1st Place
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6.84Brown University1.428.5%1st Place
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6.74Northeastern University1.599.0%1st Place
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7.73U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.225.9%1st Place
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5.78Northeastern University1.7112.2%1st Place
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5.71University of Rhode Island1.8112.6%1st Place
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9.56Bowdoin College0.764.1%1st Place
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10.75Connecticut College0.383.2%1st Place
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12.6U. S. Merchant Marine Academy-0.051.7%1st Place
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10.83Princeton University0.273.0%1st Place
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13.91SUNY Stony Brook-0.671.1%1st Place
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10.47University of Vermont0.463.1%1st Place
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10.68Cal Poly University S.L.O.0.512.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Scherer | 5.1% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.7% |
| Elliott Mendenhall | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Shea Smith | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Cabot | 1.8% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 16.4% |
| John Eastman | 10.8% | 11.2% | 11.8% | 9.6% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Connor Macken | 8.5% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Adrian Winkelman | 9.0% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Lars Osell | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Will Priebe | 12.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 9.2% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joshua Bartoszuk | 12.6% | 11.3% | 10.2% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Christine Reimer | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 2.9% |
| Liam Gronda | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 5.7% |
| Lewis Bragg | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.8% | 16.6% | 18.0% |
| Jasper Waldman | 3.0% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 9.8% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.9% |
| Gerrit Bittmann | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 9.8% | 15.8% | 36.6% |
| Charles Morris | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.6% | 8.8% | 5.8% |
| Max Case | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 8.5% | 4.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.