Race 5A

central-series-four

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

31.2%
Within 2 Positions
2.3
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Adrian Winkelman 11.5% 11.2% 12.0% 11.0% 10.3% 10.3% 8.7% 6.3% 6.2% 5.5% 3.2% 1.6% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Miles Williams 14.9% 14.5% 12.5% 11.9% 9.9% 9.1% 6.9% 5.5% 5.8% 3.7% 2.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
Nils Tullberg 10.7% 10.0% 9.8% 11.2% 8.5% 8.6% 9.6% 7.1% 7.1% 6.2% 5.1% 2.6% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Matthew Elliott 13.3% 12.3% 9.9% 9.8% 10.3% 9.8% 8.5% 7.0% 6.8% 5.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0%
Alex Bowdler 5.1% 4.8% 5.2% 6.7% 5.0% 5.8% 7.8% 8.1% 7.1% 7.8% 8.0% 9.5% 7.5% 7.1% 3.4% 0.9%
Severin Gramm 10.2% 10.8% 9.0% 8.8% 10.3% 9.2% 8.5% 8.9% 6.7% 6.0% 4.4% 4.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.6% 0.0%
Meredith Broadus 6.0% 6.2% 7.0% 6.6% 7.5% 7.0% 7.4% 7.7% 8.4% 8.6% 8.0% 7.0% 5.8% 4.3% 1.8% 0.5%
Julia Shannon-Grillo 6.2% 6.8% 7.1% 5.3% 7.3% 5.9% 7.7% 8.9% 7.2% 7.4% 8.2% 9.2% 6.1% 4.0% 2.4% 0.3%
Nathan Selian 6.7% 6.6% 9.3% 8.4% 7.6% 8.2% 8.1% 8.6% 8.8% 8.1% 7.0% 5.3% 3.6% 2.1% 1.2% 0.2%
Felix Nusbaum 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.4% 5.2% 5.3% 8.6% 12.0% 22.4% 24.6%
Gabriel Tamayo 2.4% 2.5% 1.8% 2.1% 3.5% 3.1% 3.9% 4.5% 5.2% 5.5% 8.1% 8.8% 12.4% 14.1% 14.8% 7.3%
Paul Kuechler 2.8% 3.8% 3.8% 3.5% 4.7% 6.2% 4.5% 5.8% 7.0% 8.1% 9.8% 10.0% 10.8% 9.3% 6.6% 3.4%
James Jagielski 3.3% 3.1% 4.3% 5.1% 4.2% 4.6% 6.0% 7.5% 6.2% 7.9% 8.2% 9.8% 10.5% 10.2% 6.5% 2.5%
Andy Leshaw 3.0% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 4.3% 5.3% 5.0% 6.2% 7.4% 7.5% 8.1% 10.0% 10.6% 11.0% 6.9% 3.0%
Penelope Weekes 1.4% 2.1% 2.6% 2.1% 3.0% 3.5% 3.6% 4.5% 4.9% 6.3% 7.3% 10.1% 10.8% 14.0% 14.0% 9.8%
Dominic Ioime 1.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 3.6% 3.2% 5.6% 8.8% 18.9% 47.2%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.