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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.88+7.38vs Predicted
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2Yale University3.74+3.22vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.20+4.09vs Predicted
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4Northeastern University1.83+7.96vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05+2.44vs Predicted
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6Fordham University2.61+3.27vs Predicted
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7University of Wisconsin1.34+6.80vs Predicted
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8Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.73+0.69vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University2.87-0.80vs Predicted
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10Stanford University3.63-4.34vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.38-4.60vs Predicted
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12University of South Florida2.07-0.40vs Predicted
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13Georgetown University2.74-4.44vs Predicted
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14Eckerd College2.73-5.54vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.61-2.09vs Predicted
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16Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.92-4.01vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.67-7.89vs Predicted
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18University of Miami0.22-1.75vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.38U. S. Naval Academy2.880.1%1st Place
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5.22Yale University3.740.1%1st Place
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7.09College of Charleston3.200.1%1st Place
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11.96Northeastern University1.830.0%1st Place
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7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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9.27Fordham University2.610.1%1st Place
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13.8University of Wisconsin1.340.0%1st Place
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8.69Massachusetts Institute of Technology2.730.1%1st Place
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8.2Old Dominion University2.870.0%1st Place
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5.66Stanford University3.630.1%1st Place
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6.4Brown University3.380.1%1st Place
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11.6University of South Florida2.070.0%1st Place
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8.56Georgetown University2.740.1%1st Place
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8.46Eckerd College2.730.1%1st Place
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12.91Cornell University1.610.0%1st Place
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11.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges1.920.0%1st Place
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9.11George Washington University2.670.1%1st Place
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16.25University of Miami0.220.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marissa Lihan | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Marlena Fauer | 12.0% | 13.5% | 10.9% | 12.6% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Grace Lucas | 7.0% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Heidi Hood | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 4.8% |
| Carolyn Smith | 8.1% | 9.2% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Adelaide Ferguson | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 0.8% |
| Leslie Poole | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 9.1% | 14.2% | 21.6% | 15.1% |
| Laura Dunphy | 6.1% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 0.2% |
| Corina Radtke | 4.8% | 6.0% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Lily Katz | 12.1% | 10.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Megan Grapengeter-Rudnick | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Bess | 2.6% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 9.5% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 4.0% |
| Mary Kate Mezzetti | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Solvig Sayre | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Lindsay Gimple | 1.9% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 16.3% | 8.3% |
| Christine Moloney | 1.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 5.1% |
| Hannah McNomee | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Alexandra Damley-Strnad | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 60.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.