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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.2
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Washington College0.69+4.13vs Predicted
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2Christopher Newport University0.59+3.88vs Predicted
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3Princeton University0.84+1.73vs Predicted
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4SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+4.36vs Predicted
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5Hampton University0.72-0.30vs Predicted
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6Virginia Tech1.14-1.96vs Predicted
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7American University0.05-0.12vs Predicted
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8William and Mary0.51-2.69vs Predicted
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9Villanova University-0.11-1.85vs Predicted
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10Syracuse University0.01-3.00vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-1.09-1.39vs Predicted
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12Rochester Institute of Technology-1.55-1.37vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.08-1.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.13Washington College0.6911.4%1st Place
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5.88Christopher Newport University0.598.0%1st Place
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4.73Princeton University0.8413.9%1st Place
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8.36SUNY Stony Brook-0.583.9%1st Place
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4.7Hampton University0.7213.5%1st Place
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4.04Virginia Tech1.1416.8%1st Place
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6.88American University0.056.5%1st Place
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5.31William and Mary0.5111.4%1st Place
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7.15Villanova University-0.115.8%1st Place
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7.0Syracuse University0.015.2%1st Place
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9.61Columbia University-1.092.3%1st Place
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10.63Rochester Institute of Technology-1.550.9%1st Place
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11.57University of Pittsburgh-2.080.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Heim | 11.4% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 10.2% | 11.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 8.0% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.8% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Asher Green | 13.9% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 11.2% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Magill | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 11.0% | 15.5% | 15.9% | 12.4% | 3.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 13.5% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 10.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Reid Shanabrook | 16.8% | 16.4% | 14.7% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Karl Wagerson | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 4.6% | 1.2% |
| Nathan Whisner | 11.4% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 10.1% | 9.8% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Jack Murray | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 4.5% | 1.2% |
| Shay Gualdoni | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 11.1% | 10.3% | 9.6% | 4.7% | 1.6% |
| Ava Rotondo | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 12.2% | 17.3% | 21.4% | 13.8% |
| Benjamin Knisely | 0.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 8.8% | 15.1% | 25.9% | 27.4% |
| Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 9.6% | 21.2% | 50.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.