Race 4A

nicholas-barnett

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📊 Prediction Accuracy

33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.6
Avg Position Diff
12
Total Participants

🏁 Actual Results

🎯 Predicted Standings

Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)

Skipper 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Maxwell Simmons 12.6% 11.4% 11.9% 12.6% 12.3% 11.5% 9.3% 7.8% 5.9% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4%
Peter Edmunds 8.5% 10.7% 9.9% 10.8% 11.3% 10.2% 10.1% 10.0% 8.8% 6.4% 2.6% 0.7%
Duncan Howes 9.6% 7.5% 9.7% 9.1% 11.0% 9.7% 11.3% 10.5% 10.2% 7.4% 3.1% 0.9%
Duncan Swain 19.0% 19.3% 16.6% 12.2% 12.3% 6.7% 5.9% 4.3% 2.3% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sarah Fuller 3.4% 3.5% 4.4% 4.7% 6.6% 7.3% 9.1% 9.6% 12.1% 13.6% 15.0% 10.7%
Scott Goodrich 7.9% 7.8% 8.7% 8.5% 8.4% 12.1% 10.3% 11.8% 9.9% 8.6% 4.6% 1.4%
Edward Moan 2.2% 2.7% 2.1% 3.3% 2.9% 4.5% 6.0% 8.3% 9.2% 13.2% 18.5% 27.1%
Robert Floyd 16.1% 15.7% 13.6% 11.0% 11.5% 9.5% 9.5% 5.5% 4.4% 1.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Patrick Penwell 3.6% 4.3% 5.6% 9.6% 5.9% 9.7% 9.6% 11.9% 12.5% 11.6% 10.6% 5.1%
Bryce Kopp 13.0% 12.8% 13.6% 12.2% 11.9% 11.2% 9.2% 6.7% 4.5% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Terry Duncan 2.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.7% 2.9% 4.3% 4.9% 6.0% 10.8% 13.8% 22.4% 26.3%
William Dykes 1.9% 2.5% 2.0% 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 4.8% 7.6% 9.4% 15.9% 19.4% 26.9%
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.