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📊 Prediction Accuracy
61.5%
Within 2 Positions
2.1
Avg Position Diff
13
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1William and Mary0.51+4.05vs Predicted
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2Hampton University0.72+2.28vs Predicted
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3Washington College0.69+1.83vs Predicted
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4Princeton University0.84+0.61vs Predicted
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5Christopher Newport University0.59+0.56vs Predicted
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6Rochester Institute of Technology-1.55+4.23vs Predicted
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7Villanova University-0.11-0.16vs Predicted
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8SUNY Stony Brook-0.58+0.08vs Predicted
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9Virginia Tech1.14-5.29vs Predicted
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10Columbia University-1.09-0.65vs Predicted
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11American University-1.81-0.29vs Predicted
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12Syracuse University0.01-5.36vs Predicted
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13University of Pittsburgh-2.08-1.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.05William and Mary0.5111.2%1st Place
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4.28Hampton University0.7214.5%1st Place
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4.83Washington College0.6913.4%1st Place
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4.61Princeton University0.8412.5%1st Place
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5.56Christopher Newport University0.599.5%1st Place
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10.23Rochester Institute of Technology-1.551.7%1st Place
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6.84Villanova University-0.115.1%1st Place
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8.08SUNY Stony Brook-0.583.4%1st Place
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3.71Virginia Tech1.1419.1%1st Place
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9.35Columbia University-1.091.8%1st Place
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10.71American University-1.810.9%1st Place
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6.64Syracuse University0.016.0%1st Place
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11.12University of Pittsburgh-2.080.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
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Nathan Whisner | 11.2% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 10.2% | 12.2% | 8.7% | 6.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Stefano Palamara | 14.5% | 14.4% | 15.7% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 8.5% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
Alex Heim | 13.4% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 11.8% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Asher Green | 12.5% | 14.2% | 14.3% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Luke Hayes | 9.5% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 10.7% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Benjamin Knisely | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.3% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 11.2% | 17.2% | 22.3% | 21.0% |
Jack Murray | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 10.0% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 10.7% | 7.1% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
Ryan Magill | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 11.0% | 13.6% | 16.3% | 13.2% | 7.4% | 2.5% |
Reid Shanabrook | 19.1% | 17.2% | 15.8% | 15.0% | 10.5% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Jasmine Chen | 1.8% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 14.8% | 19.4% | 15.8% | 9.2% |
Lydia LoPiccolo | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 6.2% | 10.4% | 16.8% | 24.6% | 26.9% |
Shay Gualdoni | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 12.8% | 10.1% | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
Jason "Strongbones" Case | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 8.9% | 12.5% | 22.1% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.